By Kenneth Martin

Drought Is Definitely Here

Climate Prediction Center

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Statistical and dynamical guidance show an increased probability of below normal precipitation during the November-January period across much of the southwestern U.S. As a result, drought conditions are expected to persist across southeastern California, southern Nevada, Arizona, much of Utah and western New Mexico. Drought development is also expected across southwestern California. Across much of Montana, Wyoming and southeastern Idaho, improvement will be difficult even with average precipitation across the region during the period. As a result, drought is expected to persist.

U.S. Drought Monitor

A preponderance of abnormally mild and snow-deficient cold seasons in recent years has led to significant hydrologic stress and low reservoir storages for much of the region. On October 1, of the 11 states from the Rockies westward, only California entered the 2004 cold/wet season with a normal amount of water contianed in its reservoirs, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service and the California Department of Water Resources. Elsewhere, Arizona and Colorado reported less than 75% of normal reservoir stores for this time of year, but this represented a marked improvement by more than a factor of 1.5 over conditions at this time last year. Idaho and Montana reported 65% to 85% of normal reservoir stores, about the same as October 2002. Elsewhere, less than 60% of normal reservoir storage was reported, which is somewhat to substantially lower than at this time last year. Reservoir reports from 5 states (Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming) indicated that only 30% to 45% of their normal reservoir storage was contained as of October 1, 2003, although data in Nevada and Wyoming were sketchy, making their totals uncertain.